Autumn Marketplace Update

AUTUMN MARKETPLACE UPDATE
Written by Chris Gemmell, AREINZ

Whilst we are all hurting at the pump and living costs are rising, you will be pleased to hear that the inland North Shore residential market continues to tick over. Not racing away by any means, but sales are happening if vendors’ asking prices are real and compelling for buyers.

Our last three sales in our company are via first-home buyers keen and eager to get on the property ladder. An increasing trend is that, on average, they have completed many months of research and may have missed out as they get attuned to values. They tend to pounce when they see the right opportunity.

Why step forward now, you may ask?

The main reason is the concern that the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) will successively raise the OCR, and bank interest rates will follow an upward curve up to and past the election. Providing jobs are secure, they are capitalising upon their pre-approvals already in place. Interestingly, most finance pre-approvals only last for 90 days, so the time is ticking …

So, what type of property is in most demand?

The answer is standalone homes with some land around them.

Two very good case studies are shown below at 7 Eucalyptus Place, Coastal Beachhaven (SOLD under multiple offers inside deadline at $1,470,000) and at 99 Eban Avenue, Hillcrest (SOLD under a four-way multiple offer for $1,425,000 just after auction).

7 Eucalyptus Place – Tropical Coastal Hideaway. An Inner Harbour Oasis.

99 Eban Avenue, Hillcrest. Parkside Paradise. Scale & Solidarity. Willow Park.

What properties are taking longer to sell?

The answer is attached townhouses or apartments with Body Corporates. This is simply “Economics 101”. Supply versus demand. Buyers have a much wider choice now as the new-build townhouses have added a burgeoning supply, seasonally coming on to the market, with a desire to sell out before winter.

A cautionary note here. In some cases, buyers are selecting new-builds due to their smaller freehold plots and minimal parking, over and above older, well-established, and maintained properties that offer superior accommodation size, better locations and parking.

They are tempted by shiny new kitchens and heat pumps, not recognising that these homes will require maintenance and lumpy expenses in years to come, with no rules or obligations on neighbours to also pick up a paint brush.

Capital gains in the future for some of these new builds may also be in question as they push out more and more under the Unitary Plan. Again, supply vs demand.

When is the best time to sell in 2026?

Forecasting ahead with current world events is a gaze into the crystal ball.

Whilst we cannot be certain, we are disappointed with this being the third "false start" to our real estate cycle, showing consistent buyer demand and median prices lifting month by month.

The start of 2026 began with great promise. Our Ray White Event 5.0 was a great success, with a well above-average clearance rate, either before, on the day of auction, or within two weeks of the auction.

Looking ahead, for prospective Sellers, we see two windows of opportunity.

Window 1 – NOW.

With school holidays and long weekends over, we have a clear runway ahead in May & June for buyers to refocus and use their finance pre-approvals before they run out. Also, the seasonal benefit of selling before winter hits in July.

Window 2. Spring. Mid-August – mid-October. Pre-Election.

This may prove to be an effective timeline, allowing prospective Sellers to fully prepare their homes over winter in readiness for a spring launch. It's just it might pay to start a little earlier than normal with the pending general election.

The Election-Effect. Saturday, November 7th.

Set your clock. In other election years gone by, our residential market tends to go to sleep two weeks prior and two weeks after. Not effective weeks to launch or have high-impact marketing. Time to book the motel.

There has been little or no market commentary on post-election timings. This year, it is likely to only allow a very tight four or maybe five-week marketing window before Christmas shopping and parties start, and buyers’ focus once again closes for the year. There could be a plethora of properties listed unwisely, without sufficient time to fully expose the property.

A year of continuous twists and turns.
For strategic advice on residential property, do not hesitate to reach out.

Chris Gemmell, AREINZ
Registered Valuer (non practising)
25 years active selling experience